probability

Here’s a slightly unusual exercise on the topic of Bayes’ Theorem for those of you teaching or studying introductory probability. Imagine that you’re developing a diagnostic test for a disease.

The Poisson distribution is the most famous probability model for counts, non-negative integer values. Many real-world phenomena are well approximated by this distribution, including the number of German bombs that landed in 1/4km grid squares in south London during WWII.